The next Immersive wave (2026-2027)
Why media professionals should pay attention to VR
Working in the VR industry over the last 10 years was a rollercoaster to say the least.
I think however that we are seeing the emergence of a new format - in the form of Immersive Video - that will bring VR close to mainstream adoption within the next 12-24 months. I explain below how I think this will unfold, but before…
Some context
The acquisition of Oculus in 2016 by then-Facebook, now Meta, triggered an excitement which kickstarted the “modern era” of VR. From the early enthusiasm of 2016-2018, followed a lull in 2018-2020: VCs who made early investments did not see any of the returns they expected, as there was no real market to speak of (Quest 2 had not yet launched).
Then we saw the pandemic-induced boom of 2020-2022: Quest 2 sold 20+ million units, with an app store focused on gaming. About a handful of studios were able to launch titles - some successfully - and grow their teams to develop an expertise, progressively focusing more and more on Mixed Reality, as Meta came up with the Quest 3 then 3S.
But around 2023, Meta changed its strategy: they opened the store to non-vetted developers (so that low-budget, free-to-play games made by passionate amateurs started competing with the budding studios mentioned earlier, who had a lot more overhead and expenses) and more crucially, Meta stopped funding the mid-size developers to focus on fewer, more expensive bets made by larger teams (the “AAA” of VR).
This resulted in many studios having to downsize, refocus, or simply close shop. Beyond gaming, we saw executives shifting their interests, first to NFTs then to AI. Throughout the wide range and complexity of formats (3DOF vs 6DOF, roomscale vs seating/standing), the lack of industry standards (Unity/Unreal/Swift/OpenXR) and the fast-moving technology platforms (VR→AR→MR, controllers→hand-tracking→eye-tracking, etc) it has been almost impossible for developers (or at large, content producers) to find their audience and build a sustainable business in VR.
Needless to say, you had to be a firm believer in whatever is the promise that headsets hold, in order to stick around.
It’s also a known trope in the VR industry that mainstream adoption is always “5 years away”. As I started explaining in my last post, I think the stars are beginning to align and we are now closer than that to a VR mass market - it’s more like, 2 years away.
So here is my how-to guide for the next generation of adventurous creative entrepreneurs who (still) believe in VR riches - and, being somewhat marine-inclined, I will use the evermore pleasant analogy of an upcoming wave 🌊🏄😎
What
Let’s define what we are talking about. By “Immersive Wave” I mean a growing consumer market of video-based immersive entertainment and media.
To be fair, it is not yet a tsunami, but it is a swell:
Growing consumer market: we are moving away from early adopters to the early majority, and with it comes business requirements (larger scale, lower margins) and creative considerations (mainstream audience = mainstream creators)
Video-based: as I noted in my previous post, Immersive Video finally provides a way for producers to create “VR” content easily, quickly, and at scale. It is currently the only way you can reliably produce immersive shows that are faithful to reality: forget 3D engines, gaussian splatting etc. These technologies are great, but you can’t build a mass market of talent-based entertainment with them (yet)
Entertainment & media: I use the term broadly to include news, advertising, documentaries, unscripted TV etc - and yes, even adult content. I am thus not talking about other use cases of VR, such as industrial training applications, AI augmented smartglasses etc. There is no doubt in my mind that these use cases will grow as a market, it’s just not what I am focusing on for this argument.
The appeal of a faithful reproduction of reality (people, places) is such that we take it for granted - and tend to forget that the most consumed form of media is video by far.
This brings me to why I am interested in this particular wave of Immersive.
Why
In short, Immersive video is showing signs to be the holy grail “killer app” that the VR industry has been waiting for.
This time it’s for real. Again, as I said in my previous post, Apple has really crossed a threshold in terms of quality with the Vision Pro. The screen resolution of the device makes you forget that you are watching recorded content and - to use the biggest trope of VR - it makes you feel like you are “in the scene”.
It’s what people want. Yes, the market is small at the moment but it’s STICKY: go to any subreddit, thread or channel about Vision Pro and you will find users begging Apple to make more shows. There is a huge lack of content, and early consumer data shows conversion rates for In-App-Purchases (the main monetization mechanic to prioritize, I’ll get back to it) to be really high.
It can become very large. Think of sports, music, news, travel, movies, commercials: each genre and vertical in the video business can be ported to Immersive. Absolute demand for the format is directly correlated to the number of compatible headsets out there: as manufacturers compete and lower their price, this VERY STICKY behavior will grow with the user base.
I want to emphasize here that media professionals need to forget about their past experience of VR: whereas Meta Quest was akin to a game console (used by energized teens), Apple Vision Pro is more like a home theater, bought by people in their thirties and forties, with disposable income, and who prioritize the quality of their experiences.
Now, with different user motivations, come different creator incentives.
How
If you have followed me so far, you may be wondering “OK, maybe the Immersive Video market will grow, but how do I make money as it is small and emergent right now?”
Here is my take, after talking to 250+ studios, producers and creative agencies over the last year, as we set to build the video platform Acute Immersive:
Focus on highly visual niche artists and identity interests that overlap with headset buyers profiles. Think electric vehicles, aspirational lifestyle, and exclusive access - to backstage events, unique talent, remarkable places.
Deliver small productions with high value: leverage spectacular locations, innovative artists willing to bet on the format, and bold (!!!) creative direction. The goal is to make content that the highly connected community of current Vision Pro users will hail as “THE” thing to watch. Make your show spectacular!
Build an app. Apple, along with all manufacturers with an app store, promotes apps as the fabric of its ecosystem. Think of applications as the VHS or DVD of our time: it is the fundamental unit through which consumers make a transaction. You can sell it, give it away, promote it, link to it: the app is your end product.
As a producer, you can start by launching an app with one single video (a wrapper, really) and a teaser/trailer: users download your app for free, watch the preview, and buy the full content (through In-App-Purchases, or IAPs). As you build your catalog, each new video becomes another IAP, thus compounding your marketing spend.
This last point is the problem we are solving with Acute: producers are experts at creating films and videos, but they struggle to build apps for distribution. We make these apps for them, complete with streaming infrastructure and publishing tools.
Please note however that now is *not* the time to sell subscriptions. This market is still at a development stage and it is too early to offer continuous, recurring value - either for the users paying for content, or for the creators making shows.
Who
Considering all of the above, there is a subset of content producers whom I think are particularly well-suited to position themselves and ride this Immersive wave:
Small agencies and production studios: anywhere from 1 to 50 people, using VR to differentiate themselves from larger, historical incumbents (Madison Avenue, Hollywood). Established producers are more likely to focus on their traditional business and overlook the opportunity of working with a new format.
These small companies are professional enough, with established production processes and a roster of team members & clients to call upon. Once they have built a reputation for finding creative solutions to financial/technical problems, they will be able to convince brands to trust them with their social capital.
These small companies are also nimble, hungry and resourceful, and they offer excellent production value to their funding sources (advertising buyers, film producers etc). They will stretch their hours to go the extra mile.
=> If you are looking to make an Immersive show (as an app or video) for the Apple Vision Pro, working with these smaller teams is the best way to maximize your ROI.
Examples
Let’s make this concrete: I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw, in the next 12-24 months, the following videos gaining momentous success, and elevating the people behind them to the next level of production budgets, as the market for Immersive grows.
High-concept music videos with niche talent but strong visual identity, making the best of budget limitations. Music videos (3-5 min long) are quick to make and have historically been a hotbed of experimentation for creatives.
Stunning visits of exclusive locations from historical buildings to remote wilderness, as the benefit for at-home viewers is uniquely asymmetrical compared to visiting in person. Touring Versailles without the crowd, or the North Pole without the cold? Yes, please!
Lifestyle moments with celebrities: hang out with the Kardashians, and stand next to Taylor Swift as she rehearses her choreography. The sense of proximity you get from Immersive Video is every fan’s dream come true.
Sports are more tricky due to the high complexity of deal terms for image rights, and every piece of content is extremely codified, but there will be an athlete or team owner who wants to communicate with their supporters in a new way.
I said I wouldn’t talk about it, but expert training will probably be the largest Enterprise market for Immersive Video: surgery, construction, manufacturing and military operations will all benefit from the power of VR: being “in” the scene.
Next
If you have a project for an Immersive production, I want to hear from you. I believe this new format of Immersive Video is the biggest opportunity in the entertainment industry (creatively AND financially) since the transition from analog to digital.
There will be companies who don’t make the shift and suffer from it; others will see this wave approaching, position themselves, and ride it into the sunset. 🌅
Until next time,
Paul
Phew! That was a long one. If you found this useful, please let me know below or - even better - subscribe! Same if you disagree or think I have missed something: let me know!
This article contains summaries and approximations, and does not pretend to be exhaustive.